The Beginning of the End

Sunday 11 May 2025

Historians may look back at President Trump’s Liberation Day and see it as an epoch-making moment in American history. A century or two from now, the story of the United States as a superpower might read as follows:

The United States of America began operations on March 4, 1789, at New York City’s Federal Hall. Lacking a quorum, a follow-up meeting had to be organized. From its humble origins as a British colony, the United States rose to become the world’s richest nation with the most powerful military of the time. But after 236 years and 29 days, the United States unwittingly undid itself from the global trade alliances that had fueled its economic growth and political stability. The idea was to use tariff revenues to offset mounting debt while weakening China’s rising influence. Instead, the Liberation Day Tariffs backfired—accelerating China’s ascent to superpower status rather than curbing it.

No one knows how long the U.S. will retain its superpower status, but as of April 2, 2025—Liberation Day—it entered a final chapter of its exceptional history. In Churchillian terms, we might say: the Trump Tariffs are not the end of the United States of America, but rather the beginning of the end.

Trust and credibility – once the cornerstones of America’s exceptionalism – have been replaced by celebrity star arrogance and bluster that has little appeal outside the U.S. Trump is right to target fentanyl and intellectual property theft. However, the merits of these arguments are negated by a combative and one-sided approach that is quick to place labels and slow to think. The Art of the Deal may serve in real estate, but its blunt-force tactics are ill-suited for the intricate, layered demands of international trade.

Brilliant idiot.

Donald Trump glistens with the unbounded confidence of an idiot, supported by a country of idiots, in a nation where sixty percent of adults read below a sixth-grade level. The architecture of civic knowledge has crumbled. But the damage runs deeper than one man. What was once a republic of laws and ideals increasingly resembles what might be called Stupidville: a place where ideology replaces inquiry, slogans substitute for solutions, and the Ninth Commandment—“Thou shalt not bear false witness”—has been disassembled.

From a media perspective, Trump’s Rose Garden presentation was a grand slam. It won the President the international

attention he wanted, but it also announced to the world that everyone should seek alternatives to trading with the U.S. Of course, Trump never said this—but it’s how people respond to bullying. Canada has been more outspoken than most, but their perspective is widely shared around the globe. One wonders if the President gave any forethought to the possibility of losing more trade than he gains.

Liberation Day has had the unintended consequence of triggering a trade windfall for China. The trade gap Trump sought to close has only been widened as President Xi and Chinese representatives canvas the world, picking up on hundreds of deals indirectly initiated by Trump’s threat and his half-baked plan. It’s no wonder Xi is taking his time. This affords China the chance to flank the U.S. on the world stage and gain the upper hand on trade. Trillions have gone out of the U.S. economy and trillions more are likely to follow. Stock markets may rebound, but those rebounds will be temporary.

In 2024, the U.S. accounted for about 25% of global GDP, compared to 18% for China. Trump has now made closing this 7% gap a lot easier for China.

Donald Trump is – as many have said – the most consequential president of modern times. This is now indisputable as he pulls the rug out from under the U.S. economy. While some new trade deals will be made, it’s unlikely that the U.S. will regain the footing it had before Liberation Day.

As markets and the dollar slide, so does the United States of America as a superpower. Generations of hard work and goodwill are now moving in reverse at a time when the country can least afford it. It’s not the end, but the beginning of the end for the United States of America.